Bet Prediction
Bet Prediction
The terms “Bet Prediction” and “Teaser Betting Strategy” appear to be hot topics in today’s sports betting communities on the internet. Being completely honest, even though I had routinely won money playing Bet Predictions every year since 1999, I wasn’t pleased when “teaser technique” became the topic of discussion in Bet prediction forums. Las Vegas bookmakers started to lose money on bet predictions around the time Stanford Wong published his book Sharp Sports Betting around ten years ago. It is currently practically impossible to locate a +EV bet predictions in Las Vegas when it comes to teasers. Thankfully, there are still a lot of bet predictions online, but how long might that last?
Even though I’m still concerned because the proverbial cat is out of the bag, I’ve decided to write this in-depth blog about bet predictions in an effort to contribute. Here, I’ll try to make everything as simple as possible and show you which bet predictions are successful, along with an explanation of why they are beneficial. After reading this essay, you will be well equipped to bet teasers with the odds in your favor. I’m sure you’ll find the information on this page helpful, so if you’d be so kind as to consider helping us out by linking to our website in a blog or forum post or by opening an account with an online sportsbook using one of our links, please know it would be greatly appreciated.
To start, I’ll provide some background information for anyone who is unfamiliar with bet predictions. I suggest experienced gamblers skip the first few chapters.
Statarea Prediction
Simply described, a statarea prediction is a parlay wager that makes use of modified point spreads. Six points is the most common variant in football. Suppose you like these three statarea predictions for the upcoming week: Cowboys +5.5, Patriots -7.5, and Eagles +1.5. Instead of betting on these straight or in a parlay, you may take a three team six point teaser bet on Eagles-1.5, Cowboys +7.5, and Patriots +11.5. You must cover for all three teams to win the statarea predictions. The majority of internet bookies offer 1.8 to 1 odds on successful three-team statarea predictions.
The statarea prediction chances differ from website to website. When placing a wager on six-point football statarea predictions, look for two teams that are at least -110, three teams that are at least +180, and four teams that are at least +300. You may find these statarea predictions at www.Bovada.lv.
It’s also important to highlight 5Dimes.eu, which provides 2 team six point statarea predictions at +100 at the greatest odds in the market. The issue is that 5Dimes regularly colors lines, making it challenging to find teasers that are worthwhile.
This implies that if all other sites have Eagles -8.5 / Patriots +8.5, 5Dimes may have the line listed as Eagles -9.5 +105 / Patriots +9.5 -125. The pricing of +105, -125, etc. has no impact on the statarea prediction because you can tease either side six points and still get the same payout as when both sides are -110. Because statarea predicting -8.5 to -2.5 is more profitable than teasing +8.5 to +15.5, 5Dimes lists the line in this fashion for the reasons we’ll cover later in this piece. Although 5Dimes is a great resource for sophisticated statarea prediction techniques, beginners should be mindful that teasers with +100 on two teams and six points may be deceptive.
Football Predictions
Football predictions can be deceptive in other ways as well. For instance, on 2-team, 6-point football predictions, BetMania offers +100. Despite the fact that I don’t know much about this industry, I quickly looked them up online and found out that Sports Betting Sites gave them a C+ grade, which is not fantastic. This brings me to my final point: the best football predictions are sometimes found at bookmakers with a terrible reputation. Because a football prediction can freely publicize any payout rate it chooses if it has no intention of disbursing winnings, you must be aware of this trick. Being knowledgeable about this topic, I can say that BetUS and BetOnline are the most reputable football prediction bookmakers that also offer really good football predictions.
The push rules are generally followed by every site. If one leg of a football prediction pushes while every other leg loses, the football prediction is considered a loss. A parlay reduces identically to a push and all victories. For instance, a three team teaser with push/win/win results is paid for a two team teaser. When there are no losses but just one victory, the football predictions are reimbursed (for example, a 2 Teamer push/win results in no action and the bets are refunded).
As we previously explained, a football prediction is a parlay that has a reduced point spread. In order to evaluate football predictions intelligently, we must analyze the wager to the extent that we are aware of the odds we are paying every leg. Don’t worry if anything is confused; it will all make sense in the end.
Soccer Predictions
Let’s begin with two 6-point team soccer predictions (-10). As you may already be aware, in order to break even at -110, you must win 52.38% of your soccer predictions. To calculate this, divide risk by return, where return is calculated as stake plus win. For instance, if a bettor stakes $110 hoping to win $100 and receives a return of $210, the math is as follows: $110 stake/$210 return = 0.5238, and the percentage is 52.38%. “Both ” of the legs must win often for a soccer prediction to break even. Before we can do any kind of statistical analysis of soccer predictions, we need to ask ourselves, “How often must each leg separately win in order to have a 52.38% victory rate?”
We need to know the integer that, when multiplied by itself, equals 0.5238 in order to calculate this. The result of taking the square root of 0.7237 is 0.5238: 0.7237 x 0.7237. This indicates that each soccer prediction must win 72.37% of the time on average in order for the teaser bet to have a neutral (break even) expectation. To avoid getting too mathematical, I’ll keep it straightforward and suggest you Google “Moneyline Converter,” enter 72.37%, and note that this amounts to a moneyline of -262 in American odds notation.
It has finally been determined how to play the two team six point soccer prediction at -110. We have a two-team parlay with a -262 per team. Instead of charging us the standard -110) per point, the bookmaker offered us six points for 152 cents each.
The same math can also be used to solve other soccer predictions. We’ll look at a three-team soccer prediction at +180 as an additional example. With these odds, $100 must be bet in order to win $180, making a winning soccer prediction wager $280 (our $100 bet plus the $180 win). 100/280=0.35714 is the result of the break-even calculation, which divides risk by return. We need to figure out which soccer prediction, multiplied three times, equals 0.35714 because this teaser features three teams. According to our cube root calculator, the answer in this situation is 0.7095 x 0.7095 x 0.7095. As a result, each soccer prediction of a three-team six-point teaser must win 70.95% of the time to be equal.
Football Betting Tips
We now know that each team needs to win 70.95% of the time in three-team football tips at +180 to break even. Compare the two football bet tips to determine which was more advantageous: a straight bet against the spread or a football betting match. If we wagered straight at a sportsbook with little juice, like 5Dimes, we would pay -105. Again using the risk divided by return formula, we calculate our required break even rate to be -105. The math is 105/205=0.5122 or 51.22% for a $105 football betting tip that earns $205 (our $105 stake plus our $100 win). A straight soccer betting tip with less juice has a break even percentage of 51.22%, whereas a teaser has a break even percentage of 70.95%.
Now, if you’re a seasoned gambler who is accustomed to football betting tips, something may have just occurred to you. If not, take it easy; you probably feel overburdened and need more time to get used to your surroundings. A football bet is a better option than a straight bet whether or not those extra six points increase the win probability by 19.73%.
Six points will infrequently increase your football betting tips win probability by 19.73%, making the bulk of teasers sucker bets. To do this, you must cross significant football betting tips. The most common victory margins in the NFL are 3, 7, 10, 6, 14, 1, and 2, in that order. This explains the historical +EV of core strategy football betting tips.
